By BILL O'BRIEN
TRAVERSE CITY -- There's nothing like balmy weather in early March to get folks excited -- or anxious -- about spring.
Northern Michigan's farming community has one eye on the thermometer and the other on fields and orchards. Fingers are crossed in the hope trees and plants don't bud too soon amid above-average March temperatures.
"I wasn't too worried until the past few days, when they're talking about close to 60 degrees," long-time Acme Township cherry and apple grower Dennis Hoxsie said. "That's too warm for this early."
Warm weather can't come soon enough for most northern Michigan residents, but balmy days can be troublesome for farmers and growers. Early fruit and crop development can leave orchards and fields susceptible to frost and other weather damage later on.
"This weather can bring things along a little too fast," said Keith Parker, who raises wheat, corn, rye and more in southern Leelanau County. "It's putting the push on, that's for sure."
"It doesn't take a lot of warm weather to start the early physiological activity in plants," said Erwin "Duke" Elsner, an agriculture educator in Grand Traverse County's Extension office. "We don't like to see that happening."
Elsner recalled a warm snap in February 2003 that devastated the grape crop in northern Michigan.
"We remember these things," Elsner said. "We really don't want them to start early."
Typical high temperatures for early March average in the mid-30s, up to the mid-40s by month's end, said meteorologist Keith Berger of the National Weather Service office in Gaylord.
This year, March came in like a lamb and temperatures pushed into the mid-40s by March 5. The mercury surged into the 50s last week, and is expected to remain there for at least the next several days.
"The lows we've been experiencing are closer to what the normal highs would be," Berger said.
A dearth of winter precipitation also complicates the early growing season. Since Jan. 1, the Traverse City area recorded just over an inch of precipitation, including early morning rain on Friday, although Berger said some local weather stations picked up almost three inches.
Still, that's well below the 5-plus inches of precipitation that's typically fallen by mid-March.
Jeff Andresen, an agricultural climatologist at Michigan State University, said an El Nino weather set-up in the Pacific Ocean created the mild, dry winter.
It pushed most winter storms south of the upper Great Lakes and kept bitterly cold temperatures bottled up north.
The mild winter minimized damage to fields and orchards, but could leave the region susceptible to drought conditions this spring.
Wet fall weather partially made up for a multi-season rainfall deficit, Andresen said, but minimal snowfall could set up a dry spring.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center identifies northern Michigan as immersed in a moderate drought zone, and projects likely drought conditions through May.
Warm, dry weather increases the likelihood for early fruit and crop development, Andresen said, and that could be a problem if a cold snap occurs.
"Usually the earlier you come out of dormancy, the greater risk you have of damage down the road," he said.
But agricultural officials said it's too soon to panic. It takes weeks or months to assess early crop development and identify potential damage. Above-average temperatures don't necessarily create a problem, Andresen said, if the region avoids significant temperature swings as spring continues.
"It can still be above normal and not move the trees much," Andresen said.
Lee Lutes, winemaker at Black Star Farms, said vineyards are less susceptible to early-season weather damage than other fruits like cherries. Vines usually stay dormant until surrounding soil warms and Lutes said it will have to get significantly warmer for that to happen. Plus, a strong grape harvest frequently follows a mild winter.
"Usually when that happens, it's brought us a pretty good growing season," Lutes said.
Some agriculture producers view the warm spell as an opportunity to get a jump on the growing season. They'll worry about the weather later.
"It's nice, because we can get into the vineyards a little earlier," said Jay Briggs, vineyard manager of Shady Lane Cellars winery in Suttons Bay. "We're kind of chomping at the bit to get out and do some field work."
