Traverse City Record-Eagle

Columns

August 29, 2009

Jack Lessenberry: Cherry may be weakest pick

LANSING -- Frequently, outgoing governors stay scrupulously neutral while members of their party fight over the nomination to succeed them. At least in the early stages, that is.

But Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, a Democrat prevented from running again by term limits, is making no such pretensions of neutrality. She publicly endorsed her lieutenant governor, John Cherry, months ago. Last week, she sent out an e-mail to supporters across the state urging them to contribute to his campaign.

So is this a good thing for the lieutenant governor -- and the Democratic Party? Possibly not.

Led by longtime party chair Mark Brewer, Michigan Democrats decided some time ago that their best chance to hold on to the governorship in 2010 would be to have a united front.

Party leaders have been encouraged to line up behind Cherry, a genial, 58-year-old former state senator little-known to the general public. Two rivals have also declared their candidacy for the Democratic nomination, State Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (D-Ann Arbor) and John Freeman, a former state representative from Madison Heights, a blue-collar Oakland County town.

Neither has much money, however, and both face uphill battles just to get themselves more widely known.

Yet it could be argued that a rousing primary fight is just what the Democrats need, and that Cherry, perhaps through no fault of his own, may be their weakest candidate, not their strongest.

Michigan lieutenant governors, like the nation's vice presidents, almost always lose when they make bids for the top job. Dick Posthumus, John Engler's No. 2, was defeated by Granholm in 2002. Twenty years earlier, James Brickley, Gov. William Milliken's lieutenant governor, couldn't even win the GOP primary.

In fact the only lieutenant to be elected in modern times is Gov. John Swainson, who won a narrow victory on John F. Kennedy's coattails in 1960. And he was helped, not hurt, by a vigorous primary battle against Michigan's then-secretary of state.

Add to that the problem that the Granholm administration is now terrifically unpopular. Political insiders in Lansing are frustrated and disgusted with the governor's inability to lead.

Rank-and-file voters may not see things in those terms, but they do know that the economy is horrible, and hundreds of thousands have lost jobs in the last year alone.

Traditionally, voters tend to blame the party in power for tough times. That worked to Democrats' advantage in 2006 and 2008, when President George W. Bush was the focus of their anger.

But Republicans are no longer in power in Washington, and next year, the Michigan GOP intends to campaign hard against what they are already calling the "Cherry-Granholm administration."

The governor thinks a united front is the best way to combat that. Actually, history suggests there is something Granholm could do if she really wants to help Cherry.

She could resign. That would give him a year to establish a record as governor on his own. That's what happened to Milliken, who took office when George Romney left to join the Nixon administration in 1969. Milliken was then elected three times.

However, there are no indications President Obama intends to offer Michigan's governor a job. And ironically, there are signs that Democrats may not be able to avoid an intense primary battle after all: Speaker of the House Andy Dillon may get in the race as well.

If that happens, all bets are off.

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