One or two northern Michigan races could be pivotal in the uphill quest of Democrats next year to seize control of the state Senate, now the only bastion of GOP power in the three branches of government in Lansing.
Democrats hold the governorship with term-limited Jennifer Granholm and a commanding 67-43 majority in the House, which is not always in lockstep with her.
Republicans have a nominal 4-3 edge on the Supreme Court but it's hardly a GOP bastion because Republican Justice Betty Weaver (herself former chief justice) voted with the three Democrats to elect Democrat Marilyn Kelly as current chief justice and has otherwise shown a commendable nonpartisan streak.
As of this writing, Republicans have a 21-17 majority in the Senate pending Tuesday's special election to fill the open seat vacated by Sen.
Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, was elected last year to Congress. So Democrats will need to net three or four seats next year to win the Senate majority for the first time since way back to 1983.
Here are the northern Senate districts -- all represented by term-limited incumbents who will not be on the ballot -- in order of those most at play:
n 37th District: Inside Michigan Politics (IMP), published by longtime Lansing political sage Bill Ballenger, a former senator and department head, suggests that a vulnerable GOP open seat could be the one now held by Jason Allen, of Traverse City. IMP puts the district in the "lean GOP" category but said in October:
"The GOP could actually lose this eight-county district spanning the Straits of Mackinac. Democrats have a relatively moderate Yooper who has been elected three times in a marginally Republican House district -- term-limited Rep. Gary McDowell, D-Rudyard -- poised to be their nominee. Republicans seem to be settling on former state Rep. Howard Walker, R-Traverse City, in a district with a 56.6 percent GOP base."
House Minority Leader Kevin Elsenheimer, R-Kewadin, who is term-limited, would be a strong Senate contender but wants to stay closer to home and looks to seek a judgeship. Freshman Rep. Wayne Schmidt, R-Traverse City, has a strong conservation and business base but it might be too soon for a Senate bid.
n 36th District, a 10-county northeast district represented by Sen. Tony Stamas, R-Midland, is well judged as "toss-up" by IMP, which says ex-Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Midland, "is here, there, and everywhere in his pursuit of the GOP nod. ... A battle royale appears to be shaping up for the Democratic nomination between two term-limited state reps Joel Sheltrown, D-West Branch, and Andy Neumann, D-Alpena, in a district with a marginal 51.2 percent GOP base.
n 35th District, represented by Sen. Michelle McManus, R-Lake Leelanau, who is the leading contender, based on polling and party leader endorsements, for the 2010 GOP nomination for Secretary of State.
IMP calls it "Another supposedly solid Republican district that shouldn't be on anyone's radar screen -- but will be if freshman Rep. Dan Scripps, D-Northport [actually, Leland] gets in."
Not likely. He told me Friday, "I plan and expect to run" for re-election.
n 38th District, represented by Senate Minority Leader Mike Prusi, D-Ishpeming, is dubbed "likely Dem" by IMP, which said:
"It's almost certain the winner of the 8/3/10 Dem primary will determine whom the next senator will be. But will that be former lawmaker Rich Brown, D-Bessemer, who has been Clerk of the House for the past three years? Or, possibly, current state Rep. Mike Lahti, D-Houghton?
"The only Republican with even a slim chance to steal this seat for the GOP would be another ex-state legislator, Tom Casperson, R-Escanaba."
Congressional watch
n Michigan's northernmost congressmen are key players in the health care debate on Capitol Hill.
Most notable in national press coverage last week was nine-term 1st District Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Menominee, declaring on C-SPAN that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., "is not happy with me" because of his effort to ensure that taxpayer dollars do not pay for abortions
He said he and Democratic leaders have a fundamental disagreement on whether health plans that receive subsidies from the government should be allowed to provide coverage options on abortions.
While he wants to vote for health care reform and is "still somewhat optimistic" there will be an agreement with Democratic leaders, he said:
"I'm comfortable with where I'm at. This is who I am. It's reflective of my district. If it costs me my seat, so be it."
It won't.
n Ten-term 4th District Rep. Dave Camp, R-Midland, ranking Republican on the all-powerful Ways and Means Committee and one of three GOP leaders responding to the Democratic proposal touted by Pelosi, said:
"Americans' health care is too important to risk on one gigantic bill, which so clearly hurts our seniors who are right to be concerned."
n Camp, like Democrat Stupak, has little worry about re-election next year. But his war chest is soaring -- as tends to happen for those in leadership position. His donations in the first three quarters this year totaled $735,860, compared with $589,943 over the same period in 2007.
As noted by The Detroit News, that's a 25 percent jump.
"With added power goes added interest from special interests, and that translates into dollars and cents," said Dave Levinthal of the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics.
n With nine-term Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Holland, vacating his solidly Republican 2nd District (most Republican in the state) seat to run for governor, the focus is on the district's lively GOP primary.
Joining the field last week was Sen. Wayne Kuipers, of Holland, who said:
"Our nation today faces misguided liberal policies, high taxes and out-of-control spending. I believe in smaller, limited government."
Previously announced were conservative activist Jay Riemersma, of Holland, a former University of Michigan and Buffalo Bills tight end who has been Midwest director of the Family Research Council; ex-Rep. Bill Huizenga, of Zeeland; and businessman Bill Cooper, of Fruitport.
Good news sign off
For 58 years, Merlin Dumbrille presided over what became one of Michigan's longest-running radio shows -- WTCM's Farm and Orchard Time, broadcast from Traverse City ranging down to mid-state and above the bridge.
His daily guests included county Michigan State University Extension directors, whose ag-help budgets as of early last week faced a Granholm veto that would have closed all of the 82 Extension offices and 15 agricultural and biological research stations.
But on the eve of Dumbrille's last show Friday, a deal was cut in Lansing that, according to Rep. Dan Scripps, saves not only MSU Extension offices and stations, but also "the popular 4-H program and more than a billion dollars in economic impact that the programs have on Michigan agriculture."
Upon his retirement, Dumbrille received greetings from Granholm, Lt. Gov. John Cherry, Congressman Camp and assorted legislators.
On his last program, Senator Allen and Representatives Schmidt and Elsenheimer came to Dumbrille's studio to tout him and the MSU Extension agreement.
Well they should.
Agriculture is a Michigan rarity -- an industry that is growing economically.
George Weeks retired in 2006 after 22 years as political columnist for The Detroit News. His weekly Michigan Politics column is syndicated by Superior Features.
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