Two voter surveys by seasoned pollsters give Attorney General Mike Cox leads for the 2010 Republican gubernatorial nomination and for a possible face-off with Lt. Gov. John Cherry, clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
Cox leads Cherry 35 percent to 33 percent in a Sept. 12-20 poll of 600 registered voters for Inside Michigan Politics by Marketing Resource Group, and 45 percent to 32 percent in a Sept. 13-17 poll of 600 likely voters conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications, and published by The Detroit News. But take the results, released before the weekend meeting of the "Fix Michigan" Republican Leadership Conference on Mackinac Island, with these grains of salt:
n Early polls before voters focus on elections are mere snapshots that do not forecast the picture for primary and general elections that are months away. About a third of Michigan voters are now undecided, or not about to reveal intentions.
Within parties, however, early polls are significant parts of the political process because they can spur fundraising and grassroots support. They also can indicate if a candidate begins with a decidedly negative or positive image.
n The big unknown in the governor's race is whether House Speaker Andy Dillon, D-Redford -- who scores well with non-union Democrats, independents and some business interests -- will challenge Cherry in the primary or maybe run as an independent.
Either way, he shouldn't suffer much from whatever negative voter vibes exist next year about the Granholm-Cherry administration. IMP said its poll indicates Michiganians are "slightly less gloomy about their state," although 52 percent of voters view Gov. Jennifer Granholm unfavorably.
In the Mitchell poll, Dillon in a Democratic primary trails Cherry 48 percent to 14 percent. Listed as an independent in the IMP poll, his 13 percent was substantially behind 33 percent for Cherry and 35 percent for Cox.
In IMP polling on the Democratic primary, Cherry led with 38 percent, followed by ex-Rep. John Freeman, Madison Heights, and Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, 6 percent.
n Relatively unknown candidates who got single-digit support in the polls could click with voters should they have enough money to carry a receptive message. One who obviously has the resources is Ann Arbor venture capitalist Rick Snyder, who was endorsed last week by Executive Chairman Bill Ford of Ford Motor Co.
According to the Associated Press, Snyder has given his campaign at least $340,000, which means other GOP gubernatorial candidates will be able to spend whatever they want on their primary campaigns because Snyder's donation lifted the $2 million spending cap his opponents faced if they accepted public matching funds before the August 2010 primary.
Snyder spokesman Jake Suski won't say how much Snyder has given, but vows the personal donation shows Snyder's intention "to win and reinvent Michigan."
In the Mitchell poll of Republican primary voters, Snyder and Sen. Tom George, R-Kalamazoo, each had a mere 2 percent, following 11 percent for Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard; U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Holland, 23 percent; Cox, 30 percent.
Tame 'debate'
It's standard fare in political debates to attack the chief executives of the opposite party even if they are not seeking re-election. The Democratic presidential candidates last year zinged President George W. Bush far more than each other.
The five Republican candidates for governor pretty much ignored each other Saturday on Mackinac Island during what was billed as a 90-minute debate but in reality amounted to a forum for how to pick up after eight years of Granholm.
"We are in shambles," Cox said at the outset of the event that was aired by Detroit's WJR and other radio stations.
Next up, Hoekstra noted that Granholm early on had predicted her successes would "blow you away -- and he quipped that the "scary" thing was that she succeeded in turning Michigan into "her own dustbowl."
The event was sponsored by the anti-tax Michigan Taxpayers Alliance and the focus was on tax and fiscal issues. The format allowed the candidates to have two challenges of other candidates, but they were rarely exercised.
Toward the end, Cox said to Bouchard, who had noted he carries a gun: "You got a gun; I've got a plan for Michigan."
Also at the end, Snyder used the ploy to repeat his opening declaration: "I'm the one with real world experience" creating jobs.
Beyond their agreements about Granholm and a bad economic climate, all five said they would sign a Right to Work bill if it passed the Legislature; favored reducing or phasing out the tax credits given to the film industry; easing regulations; and, of course, reducing the tax burden on business.
Democratic State Chairman Mark Brewer, who was on the island, grumped: "We heard nothing new at this debate. This is what we've come to expect from these second-tier candidates -- a lot of partisan rhetoric aimed at appeasing the base and not at improving Michigan."
Judicial watch
Four of Michigan's seven Supreme Court Justices live in suburbs of Detroit -- three of them in Grosse Point Park. Two others live in the Lansing area. That leaves Justice Betty Weaver, of Glen Arbor, as the only one outside of the Detroit-Lansing beltway.
Weaver, as part of changes she is pushing to reform how justices are selected, has advocated that they be selected from districts, as are judges of the Court of Appeals. Sen. Michelle McManus, R-Lake Leelanau, has a commendable bill that would make such a change.
George Weeks retired in 2006 after 22 years as political columnist for The Detroit News. His weekly Michigan Politics column is syndicated by Superior Features
