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February 15, 2010

Bay looks unlikely to freeze

BY SHERI McWHIRTER

Traverse City -- A reasonably mild winter isn't over yet, and experts said a prolonged cold snap could still freeze Grand Traverse Bay's surface.

Both arms of Grand Traverse Bay froze last year in late February and early March. Ice formation conditions will have to be ideal for it to happen again this year.

"It's not out of the realm of possibilities, but it's getting close. If it hasn't happened by early March, it's not going to happen," said Jim Keysor, meteorologist at the National Weather Service station in Gaylord. "It may freeze, but not to any thickness that would be safe."

A string of windless days with below-freezing temperatures could create perfect freeze-over conditions, he said.

But this winter hasn't featured dramatically low temperatures or storm-driven snowfall. That pattern isn't expected to change, Keysor said.

"It has been very consistent on temperature. We haven't seen a lot of warm-ups and we haven't had a lot of cold temperatures, either," he said.

Temperatures have mostly hovered in the 20s with lows in the teens or single digits, records show.

Ice buildup differences between last year and this season are striking, particularly from the sky, said Lt. Nathan Noyes, a helicopter pilot at U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Traverse City.

"This year, the accumulation of ice is much less. The inland lakes are well frozen over, but not so much on the bay," he said.

East Bay has ice built up along the southeast corner and West Bay has slushy ice chunks floating near the shore in Traverse City, but that's all so far.

"It's hard to say and it's hard to predict, but it could still freeze over. We'd have to have a few really cold days and calm winds," said John Nelson, Grand Traverse baykeeper for the Watershed Center Grand Traverse Bay. "This late in the season it's problematical, but it could happen."

One never can tell whether the bay will freeze by looking at winter's progression, said Hank Bailey, fish and wildlife technician for the Grand Traverse Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians.

"We could have all this mellow stuff and then get a week of cold temperatures and the ice could set up," he said.

The bay doesn't freeze nearly as often as it did "in the old days," Bailey said.

West Bay froze over for seven winters during the 1980s, for eight winters in the '70s and for nine winters in the '60s. Last year was the first time the bay froze since 2003; the previous occasion was in 1996, records show.

Ice must form from the southern shoreline of West Bay in Traverse City about six miles out to Power Island to officially be considered frozen.

Keysor said not much ice has formed on the Great Lakes in general this winter. Both Lake Superior and the Straits of Mackinac -- both traditionally icy spots -- have "little" ice accumulation, he said.

Snowfall lacking across northern Michigan:

LocationSnowfall to date (Feb. 12)Normal snowfall to date (Feb. 12)

Traverse City64.1 inches73.6 inches (down 9.5 inches)

Maple City87 inches115.6 inches (down 28.6 inches)

Charlevoix67.3 inches86.9 inches (down 19.6 inches)

Gaylord70.4 inches110.5 inches (down 40.1 inches)

Cheboygan35.6 inches63.4 inches (down 27.8 inches)

Source: National Weather Service

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