Jack Lessenberry: Michigan's primary

Jack Lessenberry

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Jack Lessenberry

January 8, 2012

By Jack Lessenberry, Columnist ---- The Record Eagle Tue Jan 31, 2012, 02:39 PM EST

DETROIT — True,

Michigan has money

woes that have led

to layoffs, the death of a

college scholarship program

and cuts in aid to education.

But next month, the state

will spend millions to hold

a primary that violates

national rules, and in which

only the Republican Party is

taking part.

On top of that, the election

may lack much significance.

Detroit native Mitt Romney

is heavily favored, and the

result will only attract attention

if he doesn’t do well.

But it could be worse —

and frequently has been in

Michigan, the state that can’t

seem to shoot straight when

it comes to selecting national

convention delegates.

Last time, for example,

both parties held primaries

that were expensive

and meaningless, violated

national party rules, and

were boycotted by most of

the Democratic candidates.

The winners — Romney and

Hillary Clinton — had their

campaigns fizzle before the

national conventions began.

If that wasn’t bad enough,

Michigan was the only primary

state in the nation in

which Barack Obama’s name

wasn’t even on the ballot.

Republicans have a crowded

race, however, which left the

Michigan GOP with a major

dilemma: National rules

require all but a few states

like New Hampshire, South

Carolina and Iowa to wait

until March to hold caucuses

or primaries.

The penalty for going

earlier is the loss of half a

state’s convention delegates.

Michigan decided the attention

was worth the loss of

clout, and decided to hold a

primary Feb. 28. As a result,

the number of votes the

state will have was knocked

down from 59 to 30, fewer

delegates than the state of

Mississippi will have.

Ironically, however, it isn’t

clear this will bring Michigan

much benefit. If Romney

follows his narrow Iowa triumph

with wins in the other

pre-Michigan states, the race

could be over.

Even if he stumbles in

some and wins decisively in

Michigan, the state where

his father, George, was a

popular governor in the

1960s, the result may be

dismissed as loyalty to a

favorite son.

Besides, some Republicans

outside the state are

sure to sniff at the results

because, well, it isn’t really a

“closed” primary. Michigan

has no party registration.

Anybody can vote in the

GOP primary just by saying

they are a Republican.

As one disgruntled Washtenaw

County Republican

told a reporter, “Any registered

voter ... is eligible.”

Whether Democrats will

show up and muddy the waters

isn’t clear. In 2000, thousands

did cross over and

helped Arizona Sen. John

McCain decisively defeat

that year’s nominee, George

W. Bush, in the Michigan

primary.

This year, Democrats have

been making political hay

over the fact that all taxpayers

are being forced to shell

out for a one-party election.

How much will it cost? Fred

Woodhams, a spokesman

for the Michigan Secretary

of State, the department

that handles elections, said

“$10 million is the figure

we are using.” Democrats,

however, have had their own

embarrassing primaries and

caucuses in the past. Indeed,

the Michigan delegate selection

process has seemed

star-crossed since the state

first established a presidential

primary during the

Progressive Era a century

ago. Henry Ford won the

GOP primary in 1916.

Eight years later, Ford won

the Democratic primary,

even though he was not really

a candidate either time.

The primary lapsed during

the Great Depression. When

it was restarted in 1972,

Democrats were embarrassed

when George Wallace

won by a huge landslide the

day after he was shot and

almost killed.

In 1980, they went to a

caucus system so difficult

almost no one could figure

it out, and which eventually

picked another loser.

Both parties have gone

back and forth between different

primary and caucus

systems since.

In 1980, George H.W. Bush

overwhelmingly defeated

the eventual GOP nominee,

Ronald Reagan, in

Michigan’s primary. That

key showing in an industrial

state helped the elder Bush

end up as the vice-presidential

nominee that year.

Most observers gave former

Gov. William Milliken

a lot of credit for the Bush

victory. Milliken, a liberal

Republican, campaigned

intensively for his former

Yale classmate, but later

broke with him when he felt

Bush had moved too far to

the right. The governor had

even less use for the second

President Bush, and openly

supported the Democratic

nominee in 2004.

Thirty years from now, will

anyone remember anything

about Michigan’s role in the

current campaign?

Stranger things have happened

... but probably not.