When Bart Stupak said he was walking away from his 18-year congressional career he started a stampede in the political class the likes of which northern Michigan may never have seen.
Virtually nobody believed the Menominee Democrat, who played a critical role in the passage of President Barack Obama's ground-shaking health care reform deal, would give up his 1st Congressional District seat without a fight.
But that's just what he did, and the rush was on.
So far, the list of hopefuls reads like a Who's Who — or Who Wants to Be — of Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Michigan politics.
On the Democratic side, trying to keep the Stupak seat in the party are state Rep. Gary McDowell of Sault Ste. Marie, State Rep. Joel Sheltrown of West Branch and former Charlevoix County Commissioner Connie Saltonstall.
Former state Rep. Matt Gillard of Alpena and former Rep. Pat Gagliardi of Drummond Island are said to be considering a run.
On the Republican side, state Sen. Jason Allen of Traverse City is seen as a front-runner. The GOP side also includes Dan Banishek, an Iron River physician, attorney Linda Goldthorpe of Curtis, Tom Stillings of Torch Lake Township in Antrim County and Don Hooper of Iron River. Goldthorpe, Stillings and Hooper have little money or name recognition and are considered true long-shots. Banishek, an outspoken conservative, has drawn attention on national television news shows and raised more than $200,000.
It promises to be a heated, expensive and, given the times, possibly nasty race.
Republicans see this as a chance to grab a Democratic seat; Democrats, caught by surprise, will be scrambling.
And as always in the 1st District, geography will play a part. The district long has included the entire Upper Peninsula and a portion of northern Lower Michigan but always has been represented by a Yooper — an Upper Peninsula resident. Although the 1st was stretched all the way to Bay City during redistricting in 2002, U.P. residents won't easily let it go, according to Bill Ballenger, editor of the political newsletter "Inside Michigan Politics."
Ballenger said Allen, McDowell and Sheltrown all will have to buck an "opportunist" label — Allen has registered to vote in Littlefield Township outside Petoskey and is expected to move into the district, and both McDowell and Sheltrown gave up state Senate races — and the fact that they're "trolls," Yooper slang for people who live below the bridge.
"They have a lot of pride and solidarity in the U.P. and believe it should be their seat," Ballenger said.
Hope for the best — a race that features new ideas for Michigan, inspired debate about state and national policy, hard-hitting but informative ads.
But given the nature of politics in 2010 — chain e-mails, misleading bloggers, anonymous issue ads and push polls — expect the worst.
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